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ruth_jl9

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woman, economist and interested on current global events

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Forecasted Questions
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Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.
Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 10, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 21% 9%
No 79% 91%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 05, 2024 07:26PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 05, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 9% 5%
No 91% 95%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 1%
No 97% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 12%
No 99% Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 88%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 Dec 26, 2024 0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 40% 8%
No 60% 92%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 26, 2024 09:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 4% 3%
Kyiv 1% 1%
Odesa 1% 2%
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