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Moving a couple of points higher following the most recent developments.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been taken to a secure location inside Iran amid heightened security

The move to safeguard Iran's top decision-maker is the latest show of nervousness by the Iranian authorities [1]

This highlights the existence of a heightened risk for Khamenei. While the transfer could be an excess of precaution, it clearly shows how the perceived threat has increased.

Iran's nervousness clearly depends on the revelation of the depth of Israel's intelligence penetration into Hezbollah [2]. 

The IDF has drastically expanded its operations against all the Iranian proxies. Will Iran respond? Will Israel attack Iran? The only certainty is that the likelihood of an all-out war in the ME has increased.

Israel's targeting of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders suggests they might not hesitate to attempt on Khamenei's life were the situation to degenerate. 

It is also worth considering the possible situation in which Iran's Supreme Leader is evacuated somewhere safe outside of Iran. Unlikely, but less so given the news.

[1] Iran's supreme leader taken to secure location

[2] Nasrallah's killing reveals depth of Israel's penetration of Hezbollah

Two major developments shook Lebanon last week:

• A major escalation in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel
• The killing of Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah

How will these events impact the likelihood of the election of a new President in the next 6 months?

Lebanon is in a situation of emergency. It is reasonable to assume that national priorities are quickly shifting. On the one hand, this could cause internal politics to take the back seat. On the other, this is the exact situation in which it would be crucially important to fill the vacancy. Among the President of Lebanon's duties and responsibilities are a few that have been designed for situations like the current one:

• Negotiate and ratify international treaties

• Pass "emergency decrees" without the parliament's approval [1]

The argument that internal politics are now secondary to the escalating conflict can also emphasize the potential for swift resolution of disagreements to address the situation.

The urgency of the matter is highlighted by the newly appointed French Foreign Minister's visit to Lebanon, in which he

emphasized "the importance of electing a president as a fundamental priority while also stressing the need to end the war." [2]

Meanwhile, Hezbollah reportedly picked Safieddine as a successor to Nasrallah [3]. Hezbollah's leadership is being decimated, this weakening could create an opportunity to elect a President without the usual strong opposition from the Islamist party. But it could also be possible that Hezbollah ceases its opposition so as not to become completely isolated in Lebanese politics.

The heightened uncertainty could play out in many different scenarios. 

[1] President of Lebanon - Role and responsibilities

[2]  Maronite Patriarch Al-Rahi meets with French Foreign Minister in Bkerke to discuss presidential election and regional stability

[3] Safieddine named new Hezbollah leader 

Confirmed previous forecast.

Nvidia is up 14% in the latest week of trading. 

A recent Reuters article highlights how the wild swings in the stock (and the disproportionate effect it has on the S&P500) are likely due to the huge volume of Nvidia options traded daily.

Nvidia recently accounted for about 22% of the overall volume of individual stock options traded daily, up from around 5% at the start of the year, making it the most actively traded stock in the options market on most days, Trade Alert data showed.

Nvidia is not the first stock to have such a powerful sway over the rest of the market.

Tesla, another favorite of nonprofessional traders, displayed similar characteristics a few years ago when the options market amplified the electric vehicle maker's stock swings, Nomura strategist Charlie McElligott said.

But AI seems to have stirred the imagination of investors even more than EVs. [1]

This highlights how the share remains volatile and the market share might be subject to wild swings. The fact that Nvidia posted results that were in line with the forecasts and the stock still took a nosedive would suggest that the stock is most likely to be overpriced rather than underpriced. 

[1] Nvidia's stock market dominance fuels big swings in the S&P 500

The July data is out. The Americas accounted for 29.6% of the global revenue. This is the fourth consecutive month the Americas market share is above 28%.

Currently, the 12-month rolling market share is at 27.8% meaning that without making any assumption about existing trends and future changes, the base rate forecast is almost a coin-flip.

For what concerns the problems Intel is currently facing, it would seem that its revenue is only expected to fall slightly in 2024 [1] implying that negative results are not significatively dragging the whole revenue of the Americas region down.

[1] How Intel Stock Can Surge 3x To $60

González, the opposition candidate in Venezuela's recent presidential election, fled and was granted asylum in Spain. 

The Venezuelan opposition's overall leader, María Corina Machado, said Mr González had fled "to preserve his freedom, his integrity and his life". [1]

This sounds bad for the opposition. Imagine being someone actively protesting on the streets, risking your freedom and your life for the greater good and one of the supposed leaders of your movement flees the country? Something you cannot afford to do! This will likely take a toll and contribute to the progressive deflation of the protests.

[1] Venezuelan opposition leader lands in Spain after fleeing homeland

Confirmed previous forecast

Putin is allegedly extremely paranoid about his health and safety. The recent visit to Mongolia, where he could/should have been arrested on the grounds of an ICC warrant, projects a lot of strength and confidence. 

Mongolia was meant to arrest Russia’s President Putin last night. It didn’t, and now it’s in trouble

The more I read about the current situation along the frontline in Eastern Ukraine, the less likely it seems that Russia will engage in the Baltics in the next 3 years.

I have a hard time giving extremely low probabilities with such a wide forecasting window, but a full-blown invasion is simply implausible.

There might be some likelihood that disputes along the border cause accidents that turn into short-scale skirmishes, but nothing more. 

There might be some leeway in the definition of significant deployment of Russian military forces [...] "across the border into the territory". Russia could potentially try to forcefully take control of a very small area along the border. That might count toward a positive resolution,

• Despite weeks-long attempts, Russia has not yet advanced enough to have Kharkiv within artillery range. This might change in the future, but it is not a sufficient condition to allow for a major operation to take place
• Russia is unlikely to attempt sieging Kharkiv before having surrounded the city. This would require the army to advance significatively within the Luhansk Oblast. It would be wishful thinking to outstretch the military into a frontal assault.
• Russia does not have enough personnel to sustain a major offensive in any city. For reference, it is not completely clear whether it will try to capture the much smaller city of Pokrovsk within 2024.
• There are 3.5 months left into this question and we will soon Rasputitsa, the up-to-2-months-long mud season in which mechanized movement becomes complex