There is only a month left, and there has been a lot of time for a coup to have been able to take place.
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Probability
Answer
6%
(-4%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
We don't really know what's going on in Kremlin, nearly all our information comes from staged events.
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Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
He might get into problems after the anniversary of the war, but I find it unlikely he will get kicked out in the next few months.
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The sanctions are popular in EU, and seem to be effective against Russia. EU has shown it's competence in getting through Winter, and with local energy production growing it is unlikely EU will need anything from Russia.