There is only a month left, and there has been a lot of time for a coup to have been able to take place.
0.001663
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-4%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
We don't really know what's going on in Kremlin, nearly all our information comes from staged events.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
He might get into problems after the anniversary of the war, but I find it unlikely he will get kicked out in the next few months.
Files
The sanctions are popular in EU, and seem to be effective against Russia. EU has shown it's competence in getting through Winter, and with local energy production growing it is unlikely EU will need anything from Russia.