North Korea will likely wait until deeper in the Trump presidency to predict how he would lead a US response (or lack thereof) to a test of nuclear armaments.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 24, 2025 06:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
Yes
Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025
86%
No
Feb 24, 2025 to Aug 24, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Reports out of North Korea make it seem as though they may be gearing up for another test.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 15, 2025 09:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Jan 15, 2025 to Jul 15, 2025
80%
No
Jan 15, 2025 to Jul 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
With Trump stepping into office in the US, his past military aggression and somewhat rash decision-making (such as in Iran in Jan 2023), and his anti-China record, Xi unlikely wants to attack Taiwan with the possibility of US involvement.
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Why might you be wrong?
In that same vein, Trump historically has had a more isolationist bend than some of his predecessors, like Biden, who has expressed greater support for Taiwan. Perhaps China would want to capitalize on this change of American leadership.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
With the country still engaged in a brutal war against Ukraine, the Russian people and political opposition will have trouble trying to rouse support to oust Putin. Additionally, Putin has held onto power for decades and shows no sign of wanting to give it up. Before the close of the war, it is highly doubtful Putin is pushed out.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-33%)
Yes
50%
(+33%)
No
PM Benjamin Netanyahu has demonstrated a great willingness to prolong the war against Hamas, largely for his own political gain. However, the recent escalations in the North may point to an Israeli eagerness to accelerate the war and bring about its close faster.
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Why do you think you're right?
While Putin has expressed a willingness to hold talks regarding a temporary ceasefire, he has not appeared open to a permanent ceasefire. Nor is Putin pushing for a temporary ceasefire with great urgency.
Why might you be wrong?
The European alliance behind Ukraine that has formed since President Trump's public abandonment of Ukraine could play a role in allowing for a ceasefire.