PM Benjamin Netanyahu has demonstrated a great willingness to prolong the war against Hamas, largely for his own political gain. However, the recent escalations in the North may point to an Israeli eagerness to accelerate the war and bring about its close faster.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-33%)
Yes
50%
(+33%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 7, 2024 11:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
Yes
Sep 7, 2024 to Mar 7, 2025
71%
No
Sep 7, 2024 to Mar 7, 2025
Recent coup attempts have proven to be difficult to pull off
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
83%
Yes
17%
No
The war is becoming increasingly politically unpopular domestically and abroad, causing Netanyahu to lose sway, and the IDF is realizing how difficult it is to achieve their aim of uprooting Hamas entirely from Gaza.
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New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
This forecast expired on Mar 3, 2024 08:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
98%
No
Dec 3, 2023 to Jun 3, 2024
Iran prefers to operate through Hezbollah and Hamas to avoid the chance of an Israeli counterattack on Iranian soil.
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With the country still engaged in a brutal war against Ukraine, the Russian people and political opposition will have trouble trying to rouse support to oust Putin. Additionally, Putin has held onto power for decades and shows no sign of wanting to give it up. Before the close of the war, it is highly doubtful Putin is pushed out.