JonathanPang

I increased my forecast slightly due to Russia's halt in New Start which increases the likelihood of using nuclear weapon in the Ukraine War and domestic nuclear accidents, which both will cause considerable material damages and fatalities to Russia. Under such a scenario, Putin's approval rate will likely suffer a significant drop. Nevertheless, the currently available information is insufficient to make consequential changes. 

Russia has announced that it is halting its participation in New Star, a nuclear arm control with the U.S. which has rattled many of NATO's eastern members. The purpose behind this act could be to divide NATO, given that the eastern members will be more susceptible to Putin's nuclear threat than the western states. It is also an obvious threat to Ukraine and the NATO. However, I only chose to increase my forecast slightly due to the lack of details about any further relevant actions/policy changes, and the announcement's timing, at his annual parliament address. The movement will likely boost his domestic political standing, especially with the ultra-nationalists as a show of determination. 

I chose to not change my forecast after consulting with Sandeep because the new research we've done showed no signs of growing protest/movement. However, Russia' s announcement to halt participation in New Start, a nuclear arm control treaty with the US could lead to consequences that would trigger mass protests, such as the increasing risks of domestic nuclear accidents and using it on Ukraine. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/putin-russia-halt-participation-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty

I deceased my forecast to 1% after consulting with friends who are currently in Russia and re-examining materials from last week. The chance of event(s) occur insofar that Putin's approval rating will drop below 50% is very likely impossible given the currently stable domestic political state and the insufficient external factors to disrupt Putin's regime effectively. 

I increased my forecast by 1% slightly due to a few new developments. Nevertheless, the chance of the scenario above remains low. According to report (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/14/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/), Dutch fighter jets intercepted three Russian military aircraft in early February which is concerning regarding the Russian force potentially attack NATO territories.  

The recent Nord 2 explosion could also trigger Russia to seek retributions since it suspects "the west" to be behind it and demanded NATO to further investigate. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-nato-should-hold-emergency-summit-over-nord-stream-blasts-2023-02-12/

However, the threat of Russian security forces causing large fatalities in NATO territories remain low because so far Russia has been mostly all talk no action.

Lastly, it is important to keep in mind that incidents or rogue act could happen without much escalation.  

According to https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard, from 23/03/2022-24/04/2022, between the first and second months mark of Russia's invasion, in total 22 protests and riots occurred, up by 61.5% from the monthly average of the same time period in 2021 . 

From 23/08/2022-25/09/2022, between the 6th and 7th months of invasion mark, 40 events occurred which was up by 83.6% from a year ago. 

Taken the median of the two (31) and times by 12 we get 372. In addition, since the one year mark of Russia's invasion into Ukraine is coming up, waves of protests are expected. According to Moscow Times, the anti-war "flower protest" has been rising, spreading to over 60 cities in Russia. Since the start of the movement in Jan 2023, at least seven people have been reportedly arrested. Therefore, I increased the probability of "More than or equal 400 but less than 600" by 5% and lowered the previous category by 55. 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/03/i-couldnt-stay-silent-anti-war-flower-protests-spread-to-60-cities-across-russia-a80129

In addition to the info I mentioned previously, I lowered the "more than or equal to 200 but less than 400" by 5 percent and increased "less than 200" by 5 percent because not only will the martial law and heightened government intervention repel people from protesting, but the ones who still remain in Russia either is in a degree agree with, or at least do not actively disagree with his decisions, or they might be due to restraints, unable to protest against the regime. 

From an outside view, Putin's approval rating, according to Levada-Center, has never dipped below 65% since he took power in 1999. As he tightened control on media in the recent years, which has effectively eliminated  alternative and oppositional voices, his approval rating has been trending upwards even post-pandemic. Furthermore, the pools of alternative candidates have also diminished significantly as many were jailed, murdered or exiled. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that Putin's approval rating drop below 50% in the coming months  

The likelihood of Russia security forces intentionally result in such significant fatalities in NATO territories is extremely low. Nevertheless, due to the long duration of the war so far, which could create fatigues among soldiers and decision-making officials, and Russia's inability to make imperative gains, could lead to miscalculation or miscommunication resulting in fatalities in NATO territories. There's also a low chance that individual officials might conduct actions leading to the result above out of desperation due to failure to progress or defend.