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he's still quite popular even after the Wagner events. And he has power to stay there.
0.118785
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
His power is probably less stable than it seems to me. Some kind of event could make the country too unstable and demand a head figure change.
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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Israel won't normalize a bit the relationships with Hamas.