SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 
104th
Accuracy Rank

CriticalThinker

About:

CIA staffer for 34 years--mostly in the Intelligence Directorate. Since then I have been training on various contracts for all the 3-letter agencies. Focus of training is analytical methods, especially critical thinking.

Show more
View All Badges »
2024 Season Stats

0.143161

Relative Brier Score

50

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 88 50 134
Comments 0 0 2 0 13
Questions Forecasted 0 0 14 13 18
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 2 1 10
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
CriticalThinker made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
CriticalThinker made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2024 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
CriticalThinker made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Sep 20, 2024 02:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (0%)
Yes
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025
97% (0%)
No
Aug 20, 2024 to Feb 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

China AI will be an election issue

.

Files
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
CriticalThinker made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
90% (0%)
Yes
10% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
CriticalThinker earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

I 

Files
New Prediction
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
CriticalThinker made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
2% (-2%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia

Ongoing war will make hard easing relations

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel