I'm matching the crowd here because I think war has already begun, it's without question that "significant military steps" against Hezbollah have been officially authorized. So either this has already resolved (which I think it should) or will resolve No on a resolution interpretation technicality.
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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
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New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
15%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(+5%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
80%
(-5%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Israel has shown little hesitation in launching strikes abroad and the Israel-Hezbollah war should make this more likely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(+3%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
94%
(-3%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Sep 27, 2025
I have an increased chance of "military activity without such a declaration" due to the Israel-Hezbollah war but overt declaration remains highly unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
87%
(+18%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
13%
(-18%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Seems like war is already going on
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(+26%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
15%
(-26%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Seems like there is a war going on by any normal definition and it's probably only a matter of time before some ground incursions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-4%)
Yes
90%
(+4%)
No
Hezbollah escalation + 2 months left
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(+5%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
85%
(-5%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Raising just because war with Israel might break the logjam somehow
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
69%
(-7%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025
31%
(+7%)
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025
Dialing back slightly since it hasn't happened immediately
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
59%
(-11%)
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
41%
(+11%)
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Mar 22, 2025
Dialing back slightly since it hasn't happened immediately
Files