Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
161
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 36 | 723 | 161 | 1858 |
| Comments | 0 | 10 | 168 | 117 | 221 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 23 | 65 | 32 | 138 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 116 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
3%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
83%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
14%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 8, 2025 to Apr 8, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Apr 8, 2025 to Apr 8, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Argentina
15%
(0%)
Bolivia
9%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Angola
5%
(0%)
Kenya
23%
(0%)
Ethiopia
3%
(0%)
Nigeria
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-3%)
Yes
94%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
somewhat separate, but thinking about all that's going on with China/US makes this less likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
NA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
5%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
41%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
59%
(0%)
No
Apr 4, 2025 to Oct 4, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files