SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 
33rd
Accuracy Rank

Perspectus

About:

Show more
View All Badges ยป
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 25 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 0%
No 100% 100%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 21 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:48PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 2%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Moldova 11% 7%
Armenia 1% 1%
Georgia 4% 3%
Kazakhstan 1% 1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025 Dec 18, 2024 5%
No 98% Sep 18, 2024 to Sep 18, 2025 Dec 18, 2024 95%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 Oct 18, 2024 0%
No 100% Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 Oct 18, 2024 100%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 6%
No 93% 94%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 6% Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 Oct 18, 2024 6%
No 94% Sep 18, 2024 to Mar 18, 2025 Oct 18, 2024 94%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 18, 2024 11:49PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 7% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 3% 7%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel