86th
Accuracy Rank

martinsluis

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  • 2023 Season
    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? -0.001201
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.002984
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.005278
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? 0.000394
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? 0.003363
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? -0.057343
    Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.000119
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.003234
    Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? 0.003385
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? 0.000817
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? -0.041163
    Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? -0.01548
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.038058
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.126406
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.014063
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024? 0.005809
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? 0.00028
    Apr 1, 2024 04:00PM What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? -0.007822
    Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? -0.000314
    Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election? -0.00017
     
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