RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.09184
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	-0.186324
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in South Sudan?	0.696632
Jan 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024)	0.004335
Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	0.01476
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)	0.0
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)	0.0
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	-0.000026
May 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)	-0.00018