Lower than 50% because Italy has lifted its ban and I assume countries would first try to negotiate terms of use before banning. E.g. https://www.spiegel.de/politik/arbeitsminister-heil-haelt-nichts-von-chatgpt-verbot-in-deutschland-a-c39c9fe3-1656-4629-85c9-c880f2468c0d
In democratic countries I'd expect resistance for banning such a popular tool.
0.680322
Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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New Prediction
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
18%
Yes
Files
I assume countries would first try to negotiate terms of use before banning
This, I think, makes much sense indeed... 😉
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
- Erdogan re-elected.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Training and refinement of the product takes longer time than that. OpenAI is also not yet seriously working on GPT-5
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Kreml power dynamics
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He is very unlikely to give up that power voluntarily. He is old (70) but years younger than the life expectancy for men e.g. in UK. Thus my forecast should maybe be lower because of that.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
I believe creating a song that has the potential of becoming a hit or many with AI is easy.
However, I think it would need to be backed up by well-known artists/ celebrities/ record company/ as to receive enough visibility. This is possible
The reason I didn't put a higher number is that I believe 10M is a lot of streams on Spotify to achieve in less than 1 year. I don't have strong evidence for this though and I think researching the distribution of streams would easily change my prediction.
Why might you be wrong?