Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 4 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-30%)
Yes
80%
(+30%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This tech is still in progress and time is moving along
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tech can change quickly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
(0%)
Yes
44%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-15%)
Yes
75%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Still working on it
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Technology changes quickly
Files
Why do you think you're right?
This is now under legal scrutiny
Why might you be wrong?
They may have already made something with these elements