This is now under legal scrutiny
0.798518
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration,
Iran: Threats & Influence
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-14%)
Yes
99%
(+14%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
They may have already made something with these elements
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than 4 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-30%)
Yes
80%
(+30%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
This tech is still in progress and time is moving along
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Tech can change quickly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
(0%)
Yes
44%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
They already have attacked "Israeli-linked" vessels and they have promised to escalate. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/4/yemens-houthis-target-israeli-linked-ships-in-red-sea-heres-what-to-know
Why might you be wrong?
Very few actors in the region want the war to expand; diplomacy or caution may prevail.