cool-bee-76

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2023 Season Stats

4.121556

Relative Brier Score

6

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 
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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 6
Comments 0 0 0 0 6
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 6
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 Definitions
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Why do you think you're right?
China and Russia ban a lot of information, so why not these
Files
Why might you be wrong?
maybe only the PRC and Russia's governments have the capability to block others, but they will use it themselves
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
why announce something that many people do not know or care about.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
the networks may have more ethics than i believe.
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
its easy to report anything with so much info out there
Files
Why might you be wrong?
i'm unsure what a large language model is.
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
i don't know a reason not to.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
its possible they may have some ethics code
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New Prediction
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
cool-bee-76 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
50%
Less than 4 million
25%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
25%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
i'm not sure what world id is.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
i'm not sure what it is.
Files
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cool-bee-76 earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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cool-bee-76 earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
They'll admit it may happen to be safe
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Its possible its not true.
Files
Files
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