kind-soil-5

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2024 Season Stats

0.955581

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
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 Definitions
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Why do you think you're right?
EU countries tend toward tighter regulation of technology which seem to infringe on privacy.  While ChatGPT continues to roll-out questions about its reach and access will cause EU to pause or limit it while gathering information/ requiring hearings.
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Why might you be wrong?
ChatGPT will quickly become a part of the landscape making it almost impossible to ban.
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
There will be an initiative to demonstrate their difference as news organizations reporting information that can be verified as truthful and authentic.
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Why might you be wrong?
Profit motive and need to stay relevant with competition in the marketplace will limit these companies' ability to "only" publish photos or videos with digital provenance.
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Believe this is already.
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Why might you be wrong?
Depends on Meta's ability and willingness to identify, classify, and report.
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
Continued information on the abilities of AI will push these companies to offer this as an option.
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Why might you be wrong?
Companies will be slow to roll-out this option while watching popular reaction to AI.
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New Prediction
How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?
kind-soil-5 made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
Less than 4 million
60%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Showing steady growth but still not widely known coupled with privacy concerns.
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Why might you be wrong?
Could begin exponential growth if some event trigger greater knowledge and push to prove personhood.
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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
There will be both regulatory and company initiatives to identify, classify, and highlight potential AI generated content as awareness of AI capabilities become more known.
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Why might you be wrong?
Companies must have the ability to accurately identify and classify AI generated content.  Moreover, the companies themselves - among others across industry - may be using AI generated content to drive revenue.
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