Confirmed previous forecast
0.418495
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
51%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Heavy competition force to shorten release cycle; model training became faster due to better labeling systems,
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Why might you be wrong?
Legal issues may require longer finetuning and manual intervetions
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
War is consuming its resources and international co-operation is near zero
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