Confirmed previous forecast
0.418495
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
Artificial Intelligence
Most Active Topics:
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
51%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Heavy competition force to shorten release cycle; model training became faster due to better labeling systems,
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Legal issues may require longer finetuning and manual intervetions
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
War is consuming its resources and international co-operation is near zero
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