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New Badge
Monthly Star Commenter - Nov 2023
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
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This forecast expired on Oct 14, 2023 08:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2023 to Mar 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+30%)
Less than 4 million
10%
(-30%)
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6 million
Time
Files
@vrl If you allow me, i think it`s too late for them to reach more than 4M in seven days, almost impossible to surpass 4M in the given timeframe.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
Prigozhin death -- this murder was yet another demonstration of Putin's stronghold on power, and a message of warning to other future dissidents.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-20%)
Yes
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-57%)
Yes
Adjusting due to misunderstanding -- thought successful launch was all that was necessary, not successful landing as well.
Attempting to land where no one has done so before. Had to use Russian-made electronics, which are heavier, due to sanctions. https://www.dw.com/en/russia-moon-mission-lunar-south-pole/a-66498845#:~:text=%22The%20launch%20was%20successful%2C%22%20said%20Yuri%20Borisov%2C%20head,descending%20to%20one%20of%20three%20possible%20landing%20sites.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+87%)
Yes
Moon mission launched today (Re: New York Times).
Files