Confirmed previous forecast
0.176211
Relative Brier Score
25
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Monthly Star Commenter - Nov 2023
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Oct 14, 2023 08:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2023 to Mar 14, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+30%)
Less than 4 million
10%
(-30%)
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6 million
Time
Files
@vrl If you allow me, i think it`s too late for them to reach more than 4M in seven days, almost impossible to surpass 4M in the given timeframe.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-10%)
Yes
Prigozhin death -- this murder was yet another demonstration of Putin's stronghold on power, and a message of warning to other future dissidents.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-20%)
Yes
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-57%)
Yes
Adjusting due to misunderstanding -- thought successful launch was all that was necessary, not successful landing as well.
Attempting to land where no one has done so before. Had to use Russian-made electronics, which are heavier, due to sanctions. https://www.dw.com/en/russia-moon-mission-lunar-south-pole/a-66498845#:~:text=%22The%20launch%20was%20successful%2C%22%20said%20Yuri%20Borisov%2C%20head,descending%20to%20one%20of%20three%20possible%20landing%20sites.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(+87%)
Yes
Moon mission launched today (Re: New York Times).
Files