VRL

About:
Show more

0.176211

Relative Brier Score

25

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 25
Comments 0 0 0 0 10
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 8
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 1
 Definitions
New Badge
VRL
earned a new badge:

Monthly Star Commenter - Nov 2023

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Badge
VRL
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
VRL
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 14, 2023 08:18PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 14, 2023 to Mar 14, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
VRL
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
90% (+30%)
Less than 4 million
10% (-30%)
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 6 million

Time

Files
@vrl If you allow me, i think it`s too late for them to reach more than 4M in seven days, almost impossible to surpass 4M in the given timeframe.
Files
New Prediction

Prigozhin death -- this murder was yet another demonstration of Putin's stronghold on power, and a message of warning to other future dissidents.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Adjusting due to misunderstanding -- thought successful launch was all that was necessary, not successful landing as well.

Attempting to land where no one has done so before. Had to use Russian-made electronics, which are heavier, due to sanctions. https://www.dw.com/en/russia-moon-mission-lunar-south-pole/a-66498845#:~:text=%22The%20launch%20was%20successful%2C%22%20said%20Yuri%20Borisov%2C%20head,descending%20to%20one%20of%20three%20possible%20landing%20sites.

Files
New Prediction

Moon mission launched today (Re: New York Times). 

Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username