Predicting future biological events, especially those related to human bioengineering, involves significant uncertainty. While advancements in bioengineering hold promise for medicine and agriculture, they also raise concerns about unintended consequences, such as the creation of pathogens that could lead to pandemics or other widespread biological events.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
54%
Yes
46%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
While the potential for a high-consequence biological event exists, whether it will occur by 2030 is uncertain and depends on various factors, including human behavior, regulatory frameworks, and scientific advancements.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reasons for Optimism
Advancements in Technology: Automated peptide synthesis technologies have significantly improved, allowing for the synthesis of longer and more complex proteins.
Increased Automation: Advances in robotic systems and automation in laboratories are making the synthesis process more efficient and reliable.
Improved Techniques: Innovations in solid-phase peptide synthesis (SPPS) and other synthetic methods are enabling the production of larger proteins with better yield and purity.
Growing Research Community: Increased interest and investment in synthetic biology and protein engineering may drive further advancements in this area.
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Why might you be wrong?
Challenges and Considerations
Complexity of Larger Proteins: Synthesizing longer proteins can still present challenges, such as issues with folding, post-translational modifications, and maintaining functional integrity.
Error Rates: Longer sequences may have higher error rates during synthesis, which could impact the final product's quality and functionality.
Resource Availability: The availability of necessary resources, including reagents and synthesis capacity, could influence success rates.
Verification Processes: Verifying the structure and function of synthesized proteins can be time-consuming and complex, potentially delaying confirmation by the target date.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
Why do you think you're right?
My assessment is based on several key factors:
Regulatory Evolution: The FDA has shown a willingness to adapt to new scientific advancements, as seen with their acceptance of novel methodologies in drug development.
Historical Precedents: There have been successful IND applications that incorporated alternative data sources, indicating a trend toward flexibility in regulatory requirements.
Scientific Advancements: The field of computational biology is rapidly evolving, producing increasingly reliable models that can simulate biological interactions.
Stakeholder Interest: There is significant interest from pharmaceutical companies and researchers in utilizing "in silico" methods, which may push regulatory bodies to accommodate these approaches.
Guidance and Frameworks: The FDA is actively working on frameworks to integrate innovative technologies into the drug development process, suggesting that they are preparing for broader acceptance of such evidence.
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Why might you be wrong?
There are several reasons why my assessment might be incorrect:
Regulatory Conservatism: The FDA may maintain a conservative stance on drug approval processes, requiring traditional preclinical evidence to ensure safety and efficacy.
Quality of In Silico Studies: If "in silico" studies do not consistently demonstrate reliability or validity, the FDA may be hesitant to accept them as standalone evidence.
Incomplete Data Integration: The FDA might still require comprehensive data from in vitro or in vivo studies, viewing "in silico" models as supplementary rather than sufficient.
Public Safety Concerns: The overarching priority of the FDA is patient safety. If there are concerns about the potential risks associated with relying on computational models, they may reject applications lacking traditional evidence.
Lack of Established Guidelines: If clear regulatory guidelines for the use of "in silico" studies are not established by 2035, uncertainty may lead to inconsistent acceptance in IND applications.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
Yes
89%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The establishment of another formal Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) by 1 January 2027 is unlikely, given the complexities involved in securing such agreements and the prevailing diplomatic sensitivities. However, it is quite possible that China will continue to expand its military footprint through dual-use infrastructure or military cooperation agreements, strengthening its ability to project power or protect its strategic interests in Africa.
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Why might you be wrong?
Predicting whether another Chinese military base will be established or under construction in an African country (excluding Djibouti) by 1 January 2027 involves analyzing several geopolitical, economic, and strategic factors. As of 2024, China has demonstrated a growing interest in expanding its global military and economic influence, especially in Africa, but there are significant challenges and considerations that could affect the likelihood of such a development.
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 30, 2025 02:04PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
90%
No
Dec 30, 2024 to Dec 30, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
While there are signs of growing dissatisfaction and unrest in Iran, the chances of Ali Khamenei fleeing Iran or ceasing to be Supreme Leader in the next year are unlikely. The regime is currently stable enough to weather domestic protests and external pressure, and Khamenei's power remains strong despite his age and health issues.
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Why might you be wrong?
Predicting the political trajectory of Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, is inherently speculative, given the complex and highly fluid political dynamics within Iran. However, by analyzing current trends, historical context, and the key factors at play, I can provide an informed response to whether Khamenei will flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year (2024-2025).
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Why do you think you're right?
Predicting the exact number of disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media in German is challenging due to the dynamic nature of information dissemination, geopolitical factors, and the evolving landscape of media monitoring
Why might you be wrong?
while it's difficult to provide a precise number, one might estimate that there could be hundreds to potentially over a thousand cases of German-language disinformation from pro-Kremlin sources during that period, depending on the aforementioned factors.