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  • 2023 Season
    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? 0.000916
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA? 0.018795
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? -0.000571
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024? -0.00009
    Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? -0.000025
    Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days? 0.122093
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.014245
    Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.100017
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.018641
    May 1, 2024 04:01AM Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.000006
    Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? -0.000006
    Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.172249
    Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive? 0.018936
    Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 5,000 fatalities from battles and remote violence between Azerbaijani and Armenian security forces? 0.000119
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000163
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.002731
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.073294
    Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.00522
    Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023) -0.00972
    Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) 0.001693
     
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