RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(10 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:17AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	4%	-4%	-2%
No	100%	96%	+4%	+2%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:17AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	5%	9%	-4%	+0%
Bolivia	10%	12%	-2%	+0%
Ecuador	6%	9%	-3%	+1%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:17AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Mar 9, 2025 to Mar 9, 2026	Jun 9, 2025 07:17AM	7%	-1%	+0%
No	94%	Mar 9, 2025 to Mar 9, 2026	Jun 9, 2025 07:17AM	93%	+1%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:17AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:17AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:17AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	2%	7%	-5%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:18AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:18AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:18AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	50%	39%	+11%	+0%
No	50%	61%	-11%	+0%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 07:18AM
(13 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	18%	11%	+7%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	46%	33%	+13%	+2%

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