EQ

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2025 Season Stats

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Relative Brier Score
138220-2024681012141618202224
Questions Forecasted

44

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 19 325 44 429
Comments 0 9 20 15 20
Questions Forecasted 0 18 56 22 66
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 0 2
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
EQ made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (-1%)
Yes
Mar 11, 2025 to Mar 11, 2026
93% (+1%)
No
Mar 11, 2025 to Mar 11, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

-

Files
Why might you be wrong?

-

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

-

Files
Why might you be wrong?

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Files
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
EQ made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
1% (-5%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Why do you think you're right?

-

Files
Why might you be wrong?

-

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
EQ made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 49
5% (0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
17% (-40%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
70% (+32%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
8% (+8%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?

-

Files
Why might you be wrong?

-

Files
New Prediction
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
EQ made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
23% (-15%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
67% (+5%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
10% (+10%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?

-

Files
Why might you be wrong?

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Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
EQ made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Yes
80% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
EQ made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
18% (-14%)
Togo
46% (-12%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Why do you think you're right?

-

Files
Why might you be wrong?

-

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
 
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