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New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(0%)
Yes
39%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-2%)
Yes
following the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
GPT-4 is really new.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Has happened before.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
Yes
39%
No
Less likely than other's thoughts.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-7%)
Yes
Generally things don't change
Files