Confirmed previous forecast
0.010478
Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
(0%)
Yes
39%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(-2%)
Yes
following the crowd.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
GPT-4 is really new.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Has happened before.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
61%
Yes
39%
No
Less likely than other's thoughts.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-7%)
Yes
Generally things don't change
Files