the houthis seems to be largely motivated by insecurity and a desire to push US influence out of the middle East, which leads me to think that any attacks by the houthis will not be directed at Israel specifically
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This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 09:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
70%
No
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
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Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 09:09PM
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Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
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Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
highly likely but not sure about timing. it will certainly happen but I think June 2024 is soon
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60%
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40%
No
people find ai-generated music cool
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Why do you think you're right?
Escalation trajectory points towards declaration of war, plus it fits with Israel's geopolitical goals.
Why might you be wrong?
However, Israel is increasingly facing pressure from its allies and the international community for its actions in Gaza and now recently in Lebanon. This may mean Israel won't have the support and resources to declare war on Hezbollah.