the houthis seems to be largely motivated by insecurity and a desire to push US influence out of the middle East, which leads me to think that any attacks by the houthis will not be directed at Israel specifically
-0.419314
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 09:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
70%
No
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 15, 2024 09:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2024 to Sep 15, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
highly likely but not sure about timing. it will certainly happen but I think June 2024 is soon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
people find ai-generated music cool
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Escalation trajectory points towards declaration of war, plus it fits with Israel's geopolitical goals.
Why might you be wrong?
However, Israel is increasingly facing pressure from its allies and the international community for its actions in Gaza and now recently in Lebanon. This may mean Israel won't have the support and resources to declare war on Hezbollah.