Confirmed previous forecast
0.258345
Relative Brier Score
16
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs,
Mission: Diplomacy,
Open RAN,
East Asia Security,
Mission: AI Advancement
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
82%
(0%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 22, 2024 12:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
80%
No
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I don't think the military power that North Korea has will be able to risk going into a second Korean War; their alliances are very little as well, given that USSR fallen and China is too occupied with its domestic economy and international trade war with the US.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In case that DPRK wants to utilize the timing of the shaky American election to control the amount of western support South Korea gets. Plus if the attack is minor, in a way that's only disturbing the ownership of the islands, but not actual attack
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Yes
78%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
Why do you think you're right?
China would be
1. pressured by the nationalism sentiments of its people
2. Felt forced by the American Election result and its influence to US-China relationship
3. find a way to claim its power so that it could gain more global economical influence
Files
Why might you be wrong?
China would like to maintain the superficial peace due to its economy and focus on domestic affairs more
Files
Why do you think you're right?
have no money to; domestically not stable enought to do that (need a timing that incents more nationalism)
Why might you be wrong?