Ssandraarellano

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-0.000163

Relative Brier Score

5

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Comments 0 0 3 3 3
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 Definitions
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Ssandraarellano
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jul 1, 2024 05:11AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Jun 1, 2024 to Dec 1, 2024
100%
No
Jun 1, 2024 to Dec 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?

Definitely, Saudi Arabia's position is that if there is no Palestinian state, there is no relationship with Israel. This position is in Saudi Arabia's own interests. So it will seek primarily to promote this position and it will not be seen in the next few months.

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New Prediction
Ssandraarellano
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jun 1, 2024 02:54AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
May 1, 2024 to Jun 1, 2024
100%
No
May 1, 2024 to Jun 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Iran's objective is to maintain tensions in the Middle East, because of the unrest in Gaza, on the other hand, Iraq as a good ally of Israel will maintain this position, in order to create a blockade in the Middle East.
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Why might you be wrong?
There is a clear alliance between Iran and Israel, so I consider it unlikely that hostilities will be settled in a month.
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Ssandraarellano
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 1, 2024 01:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Apr 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2024
90%
No
Apr 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Israel's diplomatic relations with Muslim countries have been favored by U.S. support, however with the current administration of its major U.S. ally diplomatic support has not been the most advantageous if not the opposite, without this vital vote and with a war in which Israel represents the enemy for peace in the Middle East, it is unlikely that the acceptance of these countries will be achieved in the next 6 months.
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Why might you be wrong?

Israel is engaged in timely diplomacy and is at a crucial moment where in a short time it could prove to the world that it is right. To regain the trust of its allies, and to make itself recognized as legitimate..

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

In the international debates on the elections in Russia, it is said to call elections that will not surprise us, since the current president of Russia accepts the re-election to promote himself in power until 2030. The opponents of Vladimir Putin, practically do not exist or are discredited, under the mobilizations of the Kremlin itself. The risks of the country's economy in the face of the economic sanctions of the international community for the country's invasion of Ukraine, have not yet made themselves felt in its economic stability in a significant way in the context of the reelection, so he becomes a favorite candidate for the presidency ensuring the reelection.

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Why might you be wrong?
One of the most important events of the current Russian government , was the invasion of Ukraine and the major economic sanctions that the international community , which have caused revolt in the opposition. We could expect a massive demonstration in the framework of the elections, because of these historical events that set the tone for the overthrow of the long-lasting government of Vladimir Putin.
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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Ssandraarellano
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Ssandraarellano
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 1, 2024 05:37AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
Yes
Feb 1, 2024 to Feb 1, 2025
50%
No
Feb 1, 2024 to Feb 1, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Es muy difícil para Irán por sí sólo mantener una guerra. No considero que esto se lleve acabo al menos los presentes par de años,  sus intereses no es mantener una guerra, pero si las tensiones, que demandan sus aliados políticos y estratégicos, mientras dura la guerra Palestino , Israelí. 

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