They're well on their way. They just need to make it official.

He could always drop dead. Other than that, though...

The likelihood of the United States entering unprecedented political turmoil between November and March is relatively high. If such a thing happens, there is a chance that China will invade Taiwan while the US is looking inward. I put the odds of turmoil enabling China to invade Taiwan at 30%. I put the odds of China seizing upon that turmoil at 30%. Thus, my answer is 9% yes, 91% no.

We're far closer to the close date than when I first forecasted, and there appears to be no sign of things changing. Israel has repeatedly declined to cease fire. They do not want a ceasefire, nor does Hamas. It looks as though Israel is going to enter another conflict soon, and there is no way they will relinquish their occupation of Gaza just to let more enemies into their backyard.

I asked myself first if the Gaza conflict would end by March 1st, and my answer was no. I ask myself second, will the Houthis or other groups remain committed to disrupting international trade through the Red Sea should the conflict continue, and the answer is yes. I asked myself third, will the United States incapacitate those forces, and the answer appears to be no, as the US response was non-committal. 

I put 12% because the threshold for the question is "In any capacity". It would not be entirely surprising if one or both companies sent SOME cargo.

As others have stated, increasing hostility between the US and China will inevitably lead to pressure on American tech firms to leave China. Artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies are obviously a large front of the economic and military competition between the two great powers. Additionally, the domestic outlook in China's economy is not great, and Microsoft may decide their resources are better used elsewhere.

The reason that my "yes" percentage is so low is because December 1st is such a short timeframe. If the timeframe lasted until, say, 2027, I would put the odds much much higher.

Let's discuss the reasons Israel might agree to a ceasefire and why they appear uncompelling. 

1. Casualties - Israel has confirmed 569 military casualties so far, the vast majority of which took place early in the conflict. It is not likely that Israel sees this as too high a price for the destruction of Hamas, even assuming this number grows at its current rate.

2. The plight of the Palestinian people - It is uncommon, even for those who have suffered less, for a military power such as Israel to relinquish its objectives due to the plight of those it sees as the enemy.

3. International legal action - even if Israel is convicted of war crimes, charges of genocide, or is subject to other international action, there is hardly an international body with the power or influence to override a state's sovereignty, at least not without the support of the United States. Such support is unlikely, given the political attitudes of those in power in the United States.

Now, the reasons Hamas might agree to a ceasefire and why they appear uncompelling.

1. Israel is set to win, conquering Gaza and forcing Hamas into deeper hiding or exile - this was never about winning for Hamas.

2. The plight of the Palestinian people - Hamas is not remotely beholden to the interests of the Palestinian people, nor can we say it is credibly concerned with them, given it started this war that it knew would be disastrous.

3. Self-preservation - the people making decisions for Hamas and the people suffering the consequences of those decisions are two separate groups of people.

Additionally, there is a credible commitment issue. Neither side truly trusts the other will uphold a ceasefire nor will they give up the initiative.