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Io-Aurelius

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? -0.00001
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? -0.000028
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? -0.000135
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? -0.00379
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? 0.001343
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.005056
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.003728
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.036234
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.00008
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? -0.00001
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024? -0.000007
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