Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000059
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
probability of death for 71 age year old male annualized ~3%, so for ~2.5 months thats ~1%
annualized coup probability is pretty low. Hard to think it's >4%. Again, ~2.5 months that's ~1%.
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