Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000059
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
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Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
probability of death for 71 age year old male annualized ~3%, so for ~2.5 months thats ~1%
annualized coup probability is pretty low. Hard to think it's >4%. Again, ~2.5 months that's ~1%.
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