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-0.000185
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2
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0
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New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
- Putin could lose the election. This is highly unlikely because (i) he "won" with 78% of the vote in 2018 (indicating either popularity and/or control of the ballot box), (ii) Navalny seems to be the only unifying public figure in opposition and he is barred from running (i.e. there's no other politician to rally around)
- Putin could be ousted. This is also unlikely since Prigozhin failed. For one, he had the best chance of success at ousting Putin (serves as a sort of upper bound). His failure also probably has a chilling effect (soldiers and generals more likely to think twice before disrespecting Putin). On the other hand, the war is dragging on and soldiers may be getting more antsy and agitated. Even so, it strikes me as improbable.
- Putin could die. He could be assassinated by the Ukrainians, western forces, or someone high up in the cabinet (oligarchs must be annoyed at their lost prestige and business opportunities). This strikes me as the most likely way for
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