Confirmed previous forecast
-0.072958
Relative Brier Score
32
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 4 | 32 | 32 | 32 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
80%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to Nov 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
30%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(+10%)
Yes
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
30%
(-10%)
No
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
updating
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2024 05:34PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
95%
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
escalation underpriced
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
80%
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025
escalation underpriced
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 1, 2024 05:33PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
60%
Yes
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
40%
No
Oct 1, 2024 to Apr 1, 2025
Retaliatory escalation
Files