Lots of movement within the Kremlin GRU grouping somethings happened with the arrest of number 2
-0.060928
Relative Brier Score
9
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 27, 2024 10:03PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
70%
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
Bibi needs something to distract Israel after the failings of Oct 7th and the war with Hamas is coming to an end
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Kharkiv
0%
Kyiv
0%
Odesa
Kharkiv is a remote possibility but the other two would require logistics and organization beyond the Russian army’s capabilities
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
I believe the time around this being a possibility in over and with more Patriot batteries being moved into place I think it less likely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Defences have hardened in the last 18 months.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on May 27, 2024 09:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(+35%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
50%
(-35%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
The popular unrest against the religious police hasn’t abated and is just waiting for another incident to kick things off again.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
worldwide pressure and American diplomatic pressure will create the conditions for a ceasefire.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 16, 2024 07:57PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
85%
No
Feb 16, 2024 to Aug 16, 2024
Nothing has changed in the political climate in Iran recently-it is going to take one abuse of power to reignite street protests
Files
