Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Feb 16, 2024 07:59PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 8% | +67% | -51% |
| No | 25% | 92% | -67% | +51% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 27, 2024 09:58PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(7 months ago)
Apr 27, 2024 10:01PM UTC
(7 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 20% | 3% | +17% | -21% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |