The election is illusory, his access to ~loyal internal guard forces (Kadyrovites & internal security forces) makes a coup unlikely to succeed, and he's sufficiently protected to ward off all by the most lucky Ukrainian special operators or missiles in the unlikely event they tried a decapitation strike. So we're talking about natural death or a decision to pass the torch. Both are improbable in the next 3 months.
0.000805
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Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
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5%
Yes
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