The election is illusory, his access to ~loyal internal guard forces (Kadyrovites & internal security forces) makes a coup unlikely to succeed, and he's sufficiently protected to ward off all by the most lucky Ukrainian special operators or missiles in the unlikely event they tried a decapitation strike. So we're talking about natural death or a decision to pass the torch. Both are improbable in the next 3 months.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Badge
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Files