Too hard to force labelling
0.022054
Relative Brier Score
17
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2024
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Passage of time update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than $90
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
1 trading day left for the month, probability extremely low and close to zero for a settle >$90.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+8%)
Less than $90
1%
(-6%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Why do you think you're right?
Easter - markets closed Friday/ Monday….
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Volatility ahead of Easter or an attack somewhere due to Easter.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
91%
(+41%)
Less than $90
7%
(-32%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
1%
(-9%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Adjusting given resistance being met at $85-87/bbl.
Options pricing also implying very low (near zero probability) on front month contract.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-47%)
Less than $90
39%
(+38%)
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
10%
(+9%)
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to $120
Adjusting to account for momentum in breaking through some key technical levels over the last few days. Strong technical support just below $90/barrel.
Files
Also: So what if posts are? It's not like it gives it an edge....