RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	0.226848
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.818209
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	0.064128
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.041091
May 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.000102
Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	-0.00006
Apr 1, 2024 04:00PM	What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?	-0.000811
Apr 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	-0.00001