Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:24PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:24PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 22% | -15% | -12% |
| No | 93% | 78% | +15% | +12% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 86% | -36% | +61% |
| No | 50% | Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 14% | +36% | -61% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 0% | 9% | -9% | -2% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 0% | 7% | -7% | -1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 0% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 95% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 100% | -5% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:25PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 11% | -1% | -3% |
| No | 90% | 89% | +1% | +3% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 16% | +19% | +6% |
| No | 65% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 84% | -19% | -6% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 08:26PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 99% | -4% | +0% |