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New Badge
Top Forecaster - Dec 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 08:26PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 08:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
0%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 13, 2024 08:25PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(-20%)
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
50%
(+20%)
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025
Lkely to keep it as an undeclared war
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-3%)
Yes
93%
(+3%)
No
Time is running out and situation is not improving
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It is unlikely Iran will leave IAEA check anything this year, even less sites that may have this kind of material.
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Why might you be wrong?
In the case Iran is forced to change political regimen or is too damaged by a war, this may allow inspections. But even then, it is unlikely that everything can be organized in such a short notice.
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