No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
The demand for AI talent is intense and a China based research lab is a significant asset. Microsoft has little to gain by shutting down the lab and has already limited access to politically sensitive projects and technologies. It is unlikely that they would voluntarily shut the facility without intense political pressure. Despite growing US-China relations, it would be unlikely for Congress to act in 9 months to force this. One wildcard would be an executive order by President-Elect Trump but again, this would be highly unlikely (if possible at all) within 9 months.
Why might you be wrong?
An unanticipated political crisis between the US and China could heighten tensions and cause Congress or the President to act more urgently.