Increased tensions in the middle east. Opening of bomb shelters and clearing of emergency parking lots in Israel were recently announced. US has ordered evacuation of non-essential family members from the area. Israel may act unilaterally, without US support.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Sep 12, 2025 02:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Jun 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026
70%
No
Jun 12, 2025 to Jun 12, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
US is highly unlikely to support an Israeli-led attack on Iran.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Less than 2.3%
48%
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
29%
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
6%
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
3%
More than or equal to 3.2%
Why do you think you're right?
PPI and CPI continue to beat analyst estimates. Tariff policies may be delayed and even if not, will largely be offset by a weaker dollar.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected breakout of hostilities with Iran could shut down the Hormuz straight, resulting in a rapid rise in energy prices. Producers could pre-emptively raise prices.
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New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The demand for AI talent is intense and a China based research lab is a significant asset. Microsoft has little to gain by shutting down the lab and has already limited access to politically sensitive projects and technologies. It is unlikely that they would voluntarily shut the facility without intense political pressure. Despite growing US-China relations, it would be unlikely for Congress to act in 9 months to force this. One wildcard would be an executive order by President-Elect Trump but again, this would be highly unlikely (if possible at all) within 9 months.
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Why might you be wrong?
An unanticipated political crisis between the US and China could heighten tensions and cause Congress or the President to act more urgently.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With recent hostilities escalating, Iran is prepared to fight an asymmetric war. Trump's statements have been contradictory, both indicating a willingness to reach a deal yet at the same time mobilizing strike forces to the region. Notably, he appears to have been aware that a military strike was imminent prior to actual hostilities yet continued to negotiate without revealing this fact. Israel has rebuffed Russian attempts to mediate a peace and has indicated that hostilities will continue for at least two weeks. Russia is in no position to help Iran (and according to Bloomberg, has stated that they will not provide support) and would likely benefit from higher oil prices. OPEC benefits from oil prices > $80. Virtually all Iranian oil is sold to China via shadow networks, so the US has an incentive for Iran's supply to be severely diminished. Iran may escalate hostilities in order to secure better negotiation terms for itself. Iran may develop and deploy a nuclear weapon (low probability) but this would certainly lead to near universal condemnation and swift military action by the US, Israel and perhaps other countries.
Why might you be wrong?
Iran leadership may realize the futility of continuing hostilities and may actively broker a peace rather than risk regime change. Back channel efforts by China may be successful. Iran leadership may crumble or buckle under increasing economic pressures, leading to a quick resolution to hostilities. Internal political pressures may lead to regime change from within.