Confirmed previous forecast
0.944289
Relative Brier Score
18
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Compare to me
This forecast expired on Jun 7, 2024 06:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
May 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025
88%
(0%)
No
May 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jun 7, 2024 06:22AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
May 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2024
90%
(0%)
No
May 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Why do you think you're right?
This number of casualties would be a large outlier and Russia would need to step up the intensity and change their targeting of infrastructure
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is possible a large attack hits a population centre
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+95%)
Yes
0%
(-95%)
No
news update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
95%
No
A number of groups have interest in the aid package not being granted to Ukraine for one reason or another
Files
New Prediction
Small increase in yes percent
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files